The police department would like the taxpayers to believe that the number of police officers employed is proportional to the number of crimes committed. I haven't drunk the koolaid on that hypothesis.
I suggest reading Freakonomics. There is at least some real, sort of scientific (always tough to do a deal controlled experiment with this) evidence that increased numbers of police does help drive down crime rates.
One can certainly argue that a major reason for the huge drop in crime in New York City was, during the Dinkins administration, a decision to make a significant increase in the number of New York City Police Officers---before Giuliani and Bratton came into office. And tax themselves for it. The law they passed (with a tax increase) was called Safe Streets something or other.
Now of course, Bratton came in and used certain tactics such as mapping crimes and stop and frisk and accountability and Compstat, etc., but my point is that he had the manpower and money to do it. There is always an advantage to having the numbers of people to work with (of course, Sam Zell feels people are "overhead".)
How much of a difference would a cut of 11% in the police force make?
ReplyDeleteWell, let's see:
that's about 11% of a police force which is already at about a 15-year low of 2,800 sworn officers.
One estimate of the effect of such a reduction on crime would be an increase of about 9,750 Part I index crimes a year.
In a Depression, that would not bode well for the livability of this city, and one would likely expect an outward migration once again.
The police department would like the taxpayers to believe that the number of police officers employed is proportional to the number of crimes committed. I haven't drunk the koolaid on that hypothesis.
ReplyDeleteCham:
ReplyDeleteI suggest reading Freakonomics. There is at least some real, sort of scientific (always tough to do a deal controlled experiment with this) evidence that increased numbers of police does help drive down crime rates.
Freakonomics? No, you are going to have to cite a specific study.
ReplyDeleteOne can certainly argue that a major reason for the huge drop in crime in New York City was, during the Dinkins administration, a decision to make a significant increase in the number of New York City Police Officers---before Giuliani and Bratton came into office. And tax themselves for it. The law they passed (with a tax increase) was called Safe Streets something or other.
ReplyDeleteNow of course, Bratton came in and used certain tactics such as mapping crimes and stop and frisk and accountability and Compstat, etc., but my point is that he had the manpower and money to do it. There is always an advantage to having the numbers of people to work with (of course, Sam Zell feels people are "overhead".)
Two SE Baltmore officers were shot in the 2600 block of McElderry St early this morning. One officer was shot in the face, the other was shot in the arm; however, both are expected to recover. The bad guy wasn't as fortunate.
ReplyDeleteDamn, if I assaulted my girlfriend I'd have to barricade my ass in my home too. She don't play like that.
ReplyDeleteCham,
ReplyDeletetry:
Thomas Marvell & Carlisle Moody
Police Levels, Crime Rates, and Speciļ¬cation Problems (1996)
Or this.
ReplyDelete