Thursday, September 24, 2009

ouroborosMind-blowing stats: "The 234 people killed last year had a combined 2,404 prior arrests - 162 related to guns and 898 related to drugs. That's an average of 10 arrests per suspect and 10.3 arrests per victim."
Posted by at

18 comments:

helix said...

~10 arrests ON AVERAGE for victims AND perps.

...yet another reason why "per capita" murder rate means virtually NOTHING. But that doesn't prevent people from glibly citing the murder rate as proof of why Baltimore isn't "safe".

Thu Sep 24, 09:24:00 AM EDT
ppatin said...

Helix:

The vast majority of people who are murdered in this town are human garbage, however it's also naive to pretend that a high murder rate doesn't affect the community that those murders take place in.

Thu Sep 24, 10:42:00 AM EDT
John Galt said...

What's SUPPOSED to be the case:

1) over 99% of victims are fundamentally law-abiding

2) under 1% of the population is criminally-inclined

3) 1) combined with 2) give you a low per-capita crime rate.



The aberration in Baltimore, however, is that:

a) fewer than 60% of Baltimoreans are all that law-abiding

b) perhaps 20% of the population is somewhat criminally-inclined, while a similar percentage are quite active hoodlums, so ..

c) a) and b) combine to give you massive, habitual criminal behavior which is a local societal norm and most of which is never reported, either by the victims (as they are often not squeaky-clean themselves) or by police to whom it was reported, because of political pressure to lower the numbers.

The real crime per capita is huge; the amount reported by authorities is quite small.

A good gauge is in jury selection when the pool is asked how many have been the victim of crime in recent years. I've seen two-thirds indicate in the affirmative.

The truth of the matter is that Baltimore City is a very lawless place, and therefore quite unlivable by the mainstream American population. Some don't last 11 days here.

Thu Sep 24, 10:59:00 AM EDT
Anonymous said...

let the animals kill eachother.

Thu Sep 24, 10:59:00 AM EDT
John Galt said...

If only we could find bullets which discriminate between citizens and hoodlums.

Thu Sep 24, 11:01:00 AM EDT
John Galt said...

But until then, the higher the per-capita criminality in this town, the more of us will be victimized.

Repeat offenders need to be incapacitated, either through lengthy incarceration or by forcing them to leave the jurisdiction. And you'll notice I didn't say repeat VIOLENT offenders.

Thu Sep 24, 11:05:00 AM EDT
ppatin said...

"Repeat offenders need to be incapacitated, either through lengthy incarceration or by forcing them to leave the jurisdiction."

There's a third method of incapacitating repeat offenders that you forgot to mention...

Thu Sep 24, 12:30:00 PM EDT
Blight for All said...

Baltimore isn't safe!

It's not the thugs killing thugs which scares me, it's the thugs f-ing with me when I want to take a trip to the Inner Harbor, Fells Point, or Hampden (or for that matter, ride public transportation) that scares me.

Thu Sep 24, 04:56:00 PM EDT
GregP said...

I agree that the murder rate does affect the community, but I still think the fear is way overblown. I've lived near Patterson Park for 15+ years, and while I have been subject to 2 car breakins, I don't feel particularly unsafe (and I'm quite "mainstream"). Where does the "less than 60% law abiding citizens" statistic come from? That sounds like a huge exaggeration.

Thu Sep 24, 10:08:00 PM EDT
John Galt said...

It's not a hard stat.

From Peter Moskos' Cop in the Hood, we have that

Baltimore City prosecutors declined to file charges in about 15% of all arrests and immediately reduced the charges in another 10 percent of cases. Thirty percent of minor charges are dropped. Prosecutors declined to prosecute 75 percent of the 72,200 cases brought in the city's District Court.

So you want to know where most of the criminals are in Baltimore City? Roaming the streets. And 72,200 cases in one year??? That's nearly 300 cases per business day! This is one reason that Moskos points out that police often do not arrest people that are violating the law - mostly on drug possession and distribution. These are for the most part victimless crimes. The police just try to move these people along, send them home and chase them off of the corner for the night.

Now, that's just District Court. Add in Circuit Court criminal cases and you have on average one case actually brought for every three nonelderly, nonjuvenile person in Baltimore City each year. (The juvenile stats are additional to these.)

In my neighborhood, one in three nonelderly nonjuvenile males in the community is currently under the active supervision of the Dept. of Parole/Probation. And that excludes the ones who are currently incarcerated.

So,... what percentage of the population do YOU estimate is fairly squeaky-clean?

Fri Sep 25, 09:49:00 AM EDT
ppatin said...

"In my neighborhood, one in three nonelderly nonjuvenile males in the community is currently under the active supervision of the Dept. of Parole/Probation. And that excludes the ones who are currently incarcerated."

When a community is that infested with criminality the only way to stop it is to prevent those who have demonstrated an inability to be productive/obey the law from reproducing. Unfortunately our society simply lacks the backbone to take these harsh but necessary measures, so the abscess with continue to fester.

Fri Sep 25, 10:34:00 AM EDT
GregP said...

1 in 3 on probation? That's terrible. I don't have statistics for my neighborhood, but everyone on my block is an upper-middle-class professional or a student. I don't think any of them have criminal backgrounds. Same with the neighborhoods my friends live in, e.g. Bolton Hill, Oakenshawe, Butchers Hill. There are definitely some very crime-ridden areas of the city, but the whole city is not like that. Personally, I admire people who choose to live in the more troubled areas of the city; they are the ones that will have a positive impact. But it's not easy.

Fri Sep 25, 03:09:00 PM EDT
John Galt said...

Greg:

I am about 60 feet from 'safe', uppermiddleclass Oakenshawe. If only hoodlums respected neighborhood boundaries. A friend of mine across the street in Oakenshawe was taken hostage in her home and 'escorted' to the bank to withdraw money.

Don't overestimate the safety of nice neighborhoods in baltimore. Crime-ridden Charles Village is just such a sometimes-safe, very nice place.

Fri Sep 25, 05:22:00 PM EDT
Cham said...

Ppatin:

There are several wonderful decent women who obey the law who have babies. What they don't have is a steady income, an education, the baby daddy (who is long gone) and an age over 21.

If you look at the statistics you will see their kids are the ones who later in life perform violent crimes. We, meaning those that vote and pay taxes, do nothing to encourage these ladies to wait until they are in their 20s to have kids and to get married. We, collectively, are part of the problem.

Sat Sep 26, 09:22:00 AM EDT
Maurice Bradbury said...

What? nothing? haven't you seen all of those persuasive billboards?

Sat Sep 26, 09:34:00 AM EDT
Cham said...

Regarding the CFOC's billboard campaign. I have a huge ethical problem with the billboards' message and the way the CFOC presents their messages, but one has to give them credit. At least they are trying to do something, they are on the right track.

What I would much rather see on the billboards is a black typeset on a white background saying: "If you get married your kids are less likely to commit violent crimes and to spend 50 years in prison." But that would be too simple.

Sat Sep 26, 11:30:00 AM EDT
Maurice Bradbury said...

It's flawed logic-- Married people make more money because people who make more money are more likely to get married.

It's all about the ability to defer an immediate payoff in the service of a long-term goal. To get married in the first place you have to at least be able to give lip service to this ideal. Convincing a bunch of crackheads to get married is not the answer.

Sat Sep 26, 01:14:00 PM EDT
Cham said...

Okay then, we'll go with a simpler billboard message, "The guy who just popped his buddy is not a good baby daddy choice"

Sat Sep 26, 02:04:00 PM EDT

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)