Friday, September 3, 2010

Early voting

.. so this is the first time ever for early voting in Baltimore City.
I'll head to Pimlico as soon as I figure out for whom to vote for sheriff. Thoughts?

Meanwhile, here's Jessamy's ad, "Right Track."
"I'm Elijah Cummings, I'm cuddly and bald and people like me. State's Attorney Pat Jessamy wears blue suits and talks to groups of people in front of the courthouse. She also wears green suits and makes hand gestures, wears red suits and talks to white people in the park, looks at guns and drinks Starbucks, and changes into a gold suit to look in a file folder with me."
Will the Cummings endorsement be Bernstein's kiss of death?
Stay tuned ...!

10 comments:

Dopple said...

For Sheriff, I'm going to vote for Anderson, the incumbent. Even though I think he should expand the Sheriff's general law enforcement role in Baltimore City, he has done a fine job in niche areas: Child Support Enforcement, Courthouse Security, and warrant apprehension.

Anderson has the toughest jurisdiction for a sheriff in Maryland. Baltimore City has the most warrants and the most cases for child support enforcement. Anderson has plastered photos of child support dead-beats in the newspaper along with "amount owed" to shame these people into paying. His warrant teams are out before dawn working warrants, and banging on doors.

All of the Deputy Sheriffs I've worked with have been very professional and I believe the values of the Department are sound.

I think Claridy as a 20 year veteran has experience for the position, and has some new ideas for expanding the department, but that's all I know about her.

Do not vote for Schafer - the landlord.

No idea about other candidates running.

Dopple said...

Your description of the Jessamy add is priceless!

buzoncrime said...

Dopple---I agree with you. When I worked in security at a higher education institution here in town, it used both city police and city sheriff's deputies, off-duty, to supplement its security force.
As a group, the sheriff's were much easier to work with and kept to their schedules. Their professionalism and personal appearance were exceptional. This spills over into my observations of them in their day-day work.
So, I think Sheriff Anderson has done a decent job.

When I worked in security at another higher education institution here in town, I unfortunately had my only interaction with the now-famous Officer Rivieri--who blew cigar smoke in my face, and refused my request to do a minor chore. {I think, however, the commissioner's firing of him will get overturned on appeal as arbitrary and capricious--unless the commish was able to write good reason for overturning the trial board's recommendations.}

Mjb---Do I detect a hint of sarcasm in your response to the Jessamy ad?

I enjoyed meeting and listening to Bernstein the other night, and, on balance, I think he should be given a chance--so I took one of his yard signs home with me. However, I do believe that he has only a slim chance of winning---if there's a very light voter turnout--which there may very well be.

Mr. Mephistopheles said...

buzoncrime,

I think Bernstein has a better shot than you think. Here's why:

1) In 2006, Jessamy's opponent, Steve Fogleman, won 30% of the vote in the primary even though he only raised $9,000 and had no name recognition outside of his neighborhood. So, 30% of the primary voters basically blind-voted against Pat Jessamy. Bernstein has dwarfed Fogleman in fundraising and has much better name recognition.

2) Turnout in 2010 will be lower because there are no competitive statewide races in the primary. Everyone knows that O'Malley, Mikulski, Sarbanes, and Cummings will be the Democratic nominees. Also, turnout should be lower since there is no high-profile African American candidate like Kweisi Mfume running.

3) The most competitive senate and delegate races are in the 43rd and 46th Districts. I think the 43rd will turn out more voters because people in Roland Park want to get rid of Joan Carter Conway for singlehandedly blocking passage of the interstate wine shipping bill. The 46th, which had the lowest turnout in 2006, will have a much higher turnout in the Della-Ferguson race. I would venture to guess that support for Bernstein in the 46th is around 90%.

buzoncrime said...

Mr M---Thank you for your adroit analysis.

I didn't know/remember about Fogelman in 2006--ah, it seems like so long ago. However, though I hope I'm wrong, I suspect that the Bernstein vote will be about the same, since the fact that the race has become so divisive will bring her supporters out in droves. Ironically, his name recognition will galvanize the African American vote, as she is being portrayed as being "lied about" and "victimized". One commentator on WOLB (Cheatham, I think) accused Bernstein of being a Karl Rove clone.

And while many people will not be excited about the primary, there is a high-profile African-American candidate running: Jessamy! See above paragraph.

I am not sure as many voters in the 43rd care about the wine thing as is widely believed, except for the fact that it supports the idea that Conway doesn't really represent their interests.

While I agree that support for Bernstein in the 46th is over 90%, i am not sure that translates into 90% of the votes. That area is now filled with newcomers to Baltimore, many of whom are interested in the bars, nightlife and restaurants of Federal Hill--but they rarely register to vote, or do vote if they are. Now, dog parks or beer pong, those are hot-button issues! So, it's no surprise it had a low turnout. And though Della had his name on a letterhead supporting Jessamy, I think the FOP has thrown its support to him. (It may cost him the election, though).

I think a lot of people are against Jessamy on the Internet and quoted in the press, but: 1. they don't live in the city, or 2. they aren't registered to vote, or 3. they won't bother to vote.

In the meantime, her base will be energized. May the force be with Bernstein (the police force is), but the demographics are agin' him.

ppatin said...

"While I agree that support for Bernstein in the 46th is over 90%, i am not sure that translates into 90% of the votes. That area is now filled with newcomers to Baltimore, many of whom are interested in the bars, nightlife and restaurants of Federal Hill--but they rarely register to vote, or do vote if they are."

As a resident of the 46th I've got to agree with Buz on this. IMO among those of us who've committed to living here (bought homes, planted roots, etc) Bernstein will get a huge share of the vote. The crowd that rents in Canton for a few years before getting married & moving to Catonsville is much less likely to turn out & vote though, even if they're nominal Bernstein supporters.

That being said, Bernstein might have more friends than we know about. Someone last night was telling me that he's a VERY well connected and influential guy, so who knows who he has pulling strings & calling in favors on his behalf. Hell, one of his biggest supporters is Warren Brown who said a couple years ago that B'more needed to make sure they didn't elect another white mayor.

buzoncrime said...

I agree that Bernstein has tremendous financial backing.

My wife and I have gotten 3 big, different full-color mailings from him, for example.
And one of his biggest supporters is Warren Brown, as well as the overwhelming majority of the legal beagles in Baltimore.
And Warren was right: many malefactors see Baltimore's Criminal Justice system as a joke. Ya don't want to do your stuff and get caught in any of the other counties. (Although Baltimore County is starting to see some of the stresses that the city is in its court system and some areas of the county are as bad as parts of the city.)

I like Mr. Brown; he tells it as it is, even, sometimes, when speaking about his clients--and the things they shouldn't get involved in.

And a lot of the 46th population is Hispanic, with few voters among them. I'll betcha (2-1), that tonite in Canton Square, I could stop the first ten folks I encountered, and not one of them would even know who Zach Sowers is/was. Or the Dawsons, for that matter.

Maurice Bradbury said...

It's really interesting, and the early voting thing throws a wrench in it too.

For what it's worth, Roland Park is the 41st, with Jill Carter, Nathaniel Oaks and Sandy Rosenberg, all generally well-liked. The 43rd is over by Mercy High and towards Parkville. Here's a map (first link on the page is a pdf) and a who's who.
Talk about yer gerrymandering-- that map's got more colors than Frank Conaway's ties.

Wendy said...

I really enjoy reading your articles. However you are really irritating me w/ all this pro-Bernstein & Jessamy bashing. The State's Attorney cannot get convictions 100% of the time and with the lying, sneaky underhanded police who screws up the cases before the State's Attorney ever touches them, they're lucky for the convictions they do get. If Bernstein should win, I really hope that he will be the savior that you and his fellow endorsers believe he is. But when he is NOT, be sure not to forget that either!!!!!!!

buzoncrime said...

Wendy---you are correct: it is uncertain how much if any difference that Bernstein could/would make.

The police still have to get good evidence, and document it well, and conduct good investigations. Victims and witnesses will still have to show up, and prosecutors will still have to manage unmanageable dockets.

And I agree that her office, as opposed to her personally has not been as bad as some folks make it out to be. But I do agree with MJB that Bernstein has a better chance at getting to grips with some of the intractable problems.

There's a contradiction in your comment, though: if the police are lying, underhanded, and sneaky, perhaps it is not a case to win, anyway. But if they screwed up a good case, then, yes, it can't be blamed on the prosecutor, and should be blamed on them. However, I agree with Gregg that dirty laundry between the two agencies should not be aired in the public.
By the way, police can lie to suspects, and can legally be underhanded and sneaky in other ways. Lying in testimony and reports, however, is why Jessamy created the "no call" list for police--as far as we know, the only one in the country.

Betcha (3-1) most, if not all, occupations and professions have folks in them who are lying, sneaky and underhanded. Cardiologists, bankers, and teachers and priests come to mind.